96% is closer than 87%, But not 100%
Washington State GOP Chairman, Luke Esser, has now stopped counting at 96% of the vote. this is better than 87%, but is not actually 100%.
The details are in this SeattlePI article. Here is Chairman Essers statement on this matter. Translation to me is volunteers get to count slowly and intermittently.
As near as I can tell, there are 12,970 delegates. From the numbers on the GOP website you have the following numbers.
Assuming the counting errors are evenly and randomly distributed (unlikely in this situation) Huckabee need to get 60% of the uncounted 519 delegates to take the lead.
I stand by my earlier assessment that Huckabee is being jobbed here.
The Washington caucuses have lesson for us here in Wisconsin. First, a spread of 25%, 22%, and 21% for first, second, and third are not the results of a race with a front runner. Two, John McCain can be stopped.
Just don't vote for him and let the convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul decide who is the nominee. Uncommitted delagate is an option This coming Tuesday.
By waiting until the convention, McCain will either prove he is sincere or pull a McCain and piss off the GOP base. For either outcome postponement the prudent course of action is to wait until September.
The details are in this SeattlePI article. Here is Chairman Essers statement on this matter. Translation to me is volunteers get to count slowly and intermittently.
As near as I can tell, there are 12,970 delegates. From the numbers on the GOP website you have the following numbers.
| Name | Delegates | Percentage | Difference |
| McCain | 3,191 | 24.60% | |
| Huckabee | 2,898 | 22.34% | 293 |
| Paul | 2,665 | 20.55% | 526 |
| Romney | 1,905 | 14.69% | 1,286 |
| Other | 136 | 1.05% | 3,055 |
| Uncommitted | 1,656 | 12.77% | 1,535 |
| Uncounted | 519 | 4.00% | 2,672 |
| Total | 12,970 | 100.00% | |
Assuming the counting errors are evenly and randomly distributed (unlikely in this situation) Huckabee need to get 60% of the uncounted 519 delegates to take the lead.
I stand by my earlier assessment that Huckabee is being jobbed here.
The Washington caucuses have lesson for us here in Wisconsin. First, a spread of 25%, 22%, and 21% for first, second, and third are not the results of a race with a front runner. Two, John McCain can be stopped.
Just don't vote for him and let the convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul decide who is the nominee. Uncommitted delagate is an option This coming Tuesday.
By waiting until the convention, McCain will either prove he is sincere or pull a McCain and piss off the GOP base. For either outcome postponement the prudent course of action is to wait until September.
posted by John Washburn | 11:02 PM
1 Comments:
Hey John,
This is Atticus from Dallas. I tied as a national delegate alternate, 82-82 at the TX GOP convention, but then my opponent told everyone I voted for Ron Paul (nothing I hid) and wouldn't support McCFR. It dropped my margin down to 76-88. Still pretty good since this guy has been in the party for years and was well known and established in my congressional district.
I just thought I'd share that with you.
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