Washburn's World

My take on the world. My wife often refers to this as the WWW (Weird World of Washburn)

My Photo
Name:
Location: Germantown, Wisconsin, United States

I am a simple country boy transplanted from the Piehl Township in northern Wisconsin to the Milwaukee metropolitan area who came down "sout" in 1980 for college and have stayed in the area since.
If this blog is something you wish to support, consider a donation.

Monday, March 28, 2005

Doing the Fraud Math

I have said before I don’t care which bones man won Wisconsin, but I am curious to know which bones man would have won Wisconsin had there been a legal election.

I was doing the mathematics for the ballot box stuffing which has been documented to date in Milwaukee. If the law had been followed, excess ballots would have been removed by random draw. The ward-by-ward canvass on the SEB web site gives the following totals for the 314 wards of the City of Milwaukee.

Total Ballots CastKerryBushBadnarikCobbNaderHarrisBrownScat.
276,921198,90775,7464781941,2263141298
71.8%27.4%0.2%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.1%

The ballots cast for Peroutka of the Constitution party are co-mingled with the totals for Scattering.

If 7,000 ballots are removed by random draw exactly according to these candidate ballot percentages, the each candidate looses the following number of votes.

KerryBushBadnarikCobbNaderHarrisBrownScat.
5,0281,91512531118

Kerry loses ground by 3,113 votes. This is more than 1/4 of his 11,384 ballot (not vote) lead in Wisconsin. Unfortunately, the ballot box stuffing is more subtle than this simple minded approach would indicate.

The stuffing of ballot boxes is worse than Greg Borrowski has reported. In the article from February 9, 2005, it was reported that the 2 wards with 500+ stuffed ballots were incorrect. Of the remaining 15 wards with discrepancies of more than 100 shown on the map, you have the following ballot stuffed percentages. Yes, in ward 260 of Milwaukee, more than 2 of every 5 of the 473 ballots found in ballot box were not cast by an elector.

Ward NameTotal Ballots Cast in WardKerryBushOtherExcess Ballots% Stuffed
Ward 26047342744220042.30%
Ward 1471368328224934.90%
Ward 2168574324141121725.30%
Ward 31213276996131531924.00%
Ward 6210595365081523422.10%
Ward 44194113235982035718.40%
Ward 18815017487351826017.30%
Ward 30068165031011717.20%
Ward 2591091751335517916.40%
Ward 124870731137213615.60%
Ward 9902772126412714.10%
Ward 7192884284211412.30%
Ward 3920961,2048454724111.50%
Ward 25810297912271111110.80%
Ward 5821621248878361014.70%

For the 15 wards with known ballot box stuffing, I used the ward percentages as a guide on how the vote tallies might be affected if there were a random draw of ballots. For the remaining 297 wards of the city, I used the ballots cast for those 297 wards as a guide on how the vote tallies might be affected if there were a random draw of ballots. Here is how the vote tallies would be affected if there were a random draw of ballots for the 16 bins (15 wards and remainder of city).

Votes Lost due to Removal of
Excess Ballots
TotalKerryBushBadnarikCobbNaderHarrisBrownScat.
15 Stuffed Wards296220838624012001
Rest of City4038291310927318014
Total70004996195411330015

Even this more nuance approach means Kerry loses ground by an average of 3042 votes if the law had been followed and excess ballots removed. I will not bore you with the details of error bars for hyper-geometric distributions except to say this: a cumulative error in the 16 bins (15 wards and the rest of the City) of 25 votes gives a confidence interval of 99%.

Statistically, this means, with a random removal of ballots from the respective ballot boxes, there is only 1 chance in 100 that Kerry would lose ground to Bush by less than 3015 votes. Call it 3000 for round numbers. Three thousand is still more than ¼ of Kerry’s 11,384 ballot (not vote) victory in Wisconsin. What are the ballot box stuffing numbers are in Madison, Kenosha, Racine and Green Bay, West Allis, Wausau, Eau Claire, etc.?

Also 7,000 is the low estimate of the number of ballots stuffed into the ballot boxes in the City of Milwaukee. If the actual number is 10,000 ballots, then a similar analysis leads to the conclusion: there is a 1 chance in 100 that Kerry would lose ground to bush by less than 4310 votes. Call it 4300 for round numbers. Ballot box stuffing (neglecting all other fraudulent activities) accounted for at least 3,000 extra votes for John Kerry in the City of Milwaukee alone.

But, as the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says: We have to move beyond fraud.

1 Comments:

Anonymous steveegg said...

I have but two words to describe it; Just Damn

Mon Mar 28, 08:21:00 AM CST  

Post a Comment

<< Home