Doing the Fraud Math
I was doing the mathematics for the ballot box stuffing which has been documented to date in Milwaukee. If the law had been followed, excess ballots would have been removed by random draw. The ward-by-ward canvass on the SEB web site gives the following totals for the 314 wards of the City of Milwaukee.
|Total Ballots Cast||Kerry||Bush||Badnarik||Cobb||Nader||Harris||Brown||Scat.|
The ballots cast for Peroutka of the Constitution party are co-mingled with the totals for Scattering.
If 7,000 ballots are removed by random draw exactly according to these candidate ballot percentages, the each candidate looses the following number of votes.
Kerry loses ground by 3,113 votes. This is more than 1/4 of his 11,384 ballot (not vote) lead in Wisconsin. Unfortunately, the ballot box stuffing is more subtle than this simple minded approach would indicate.
The stuffing of ballot boxes is worse than Greg Borrowski has reported. In the article from February 9, 2005, it was reported that the 2 wards with 500+ stuffed ballots were incorrect. Of the remaining 15 wards with discrepancies of more than 100 shown on the map, you have the following ballot stuffed percentages. Yes, in ward 260 of Milwaukee, more than 2 of every 5 of the 473 ballots found in ballot box were not cast by an elector.
|Ward Name||Total Ballots Cast in Ward||Kerry||Bush||Other||Excess Ballots||% Stuffed|
For the 15 wards with known ballot box stuffing, I used the ward percentages as a guide on how the vote tallies might be affected if there were a random draw of ballots. For the remaining 297 wards of the city, I used the ballots cast for those 297 wards as a guide on how the vote tallies might be affected if there were a random draw of ballots. Here is how the vote tallies would be affected if there were a random draw of ballots for the 16 bins (15 wards and remainder of city).
|Votes Lost due to Removal of|
|15 Stuffed Wards||2962||2083||862||4||0||12||0||0||1|
|Rest of City||4038||2913||1092||7||3||18||0||1||4|
Even this more nuance approach means Kerry loses ground by an average of 3042 votes if the law had been followed and excess ballots removed. I will not bore you with the details of error bars for hyper-geometric distributions except to say this: a cumulative error in the 16 bins (15 wards and the rest of the City) of 25 votes gives a confidence interval of 99%.
Statistically, this means, with a random removal of ballots from the respective ballot boxes, there is only 1 chance in 100 that Kerry would lose ground to Bush by less than 3015 votes. Call it 3000 for round numbers. Three thousand is still more than ¼ of Kerry’s 11,384 ballot (not vote) victory in Wisconsin. What are the ballot box stuffing numbers are in Madison, Kenosha, Racine and Green Bay, West Allis, Wausau, Eau Claire, etc.?
Also 7,000 is the low estimate of the number of ballots stuffed into the ballot boxes in the City of Milwaukee. If the actual number is 10,000 ballots, then a similar analysis leads to the conclusion: there is a 1 chance in 100 that Kerry would lose ground to bush by less than 4310 votes. Call it 4300 for round numbers. Ballot box stuffing (neglecting all other fraudulent activities) accounted for at least 3,000 extra votes for John Kerry in the City of Milwaukee alone.
But, as the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says: We have to move beyond fraud.